Análisis Geopolitical Diary, 01.03.2016
Just when a clear picture of the Kremlin seems to emerge, something happens to shake it up again. Over the weekend, Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov announced that he would not seek re-election this year. He refused to name a successor and added that he was leaving politics altogether, not seeking a federal position as was often rumored. Those who watch Russia have long assumed there are only two personalities too big to be removed from their positions: President Vladimir Putin and Kadyrov.
Kadyrov rose to power as one of several Chechen nationalist militants who left the ideological Chechen fighters and aligned with the Kremlin during the Second Chechen War. After the war, the Kadyrov family — led by Ramzan's father — was supposed to jointly rule Chechnya with the Yamadayev family. But the Yamadayev brothers and many of their loyalists were systematically assassinated over the course of a decade, leaving the Kadyrovs to rule Chechnya alone. Ramzan's father, Akhmad Kadyrov, was assassinated in 2004, and Ramzan assumed the presidency three years later.
Kadyrov is as popular in Chechnya as Putin is in Russia, which is why most observers — and most Russians — believe that if Kadyrov is out, Chechnya will fall into chaos. This concern helps explains why the Kremlin has tolerated his antics over the years: threatening to invade neighboring Ingushetia, social media campaigns suggesting the assassination of opposition leaders, and rallies involving tens of thousands of Chechen soldiers ready to deploy to Ukraine at short notice. Kadyrov's unwavering support for Putin at a time when the Russian president has been under attack from Russia's elites has also helped keep him in place. When Putin "went missing" for 10 days last year, Kadyrov pledged his life to Putin — a threat against any Russian elite who might challenge the Russian president.
Kadyrov had hinted before that he might not pursue re-election. Following the arrest of a group of Chechens associated with Kadyrov for the assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemtsov and Putin's subsequent disappearance from the public, Kadyrov said he was willing to resign whenever Putin would allow him to do so. Kadyrov's decision, then, raises several questions and possibilities.
First, the announcement could be a bluff. Kadyrov could be launching a media blitz to secure his position. A few thousand Chechens protested his announcement in Grozny on Monday even though Kadyrov asked for calm, and on Russian Twitter "RamzanDon'tLeave" has been one of the most popular hashtags of the day. Kadyrov may be hoping that public pressure will force the Kremlin to publicly ask him to stay, giving him a firm mandate to continue ruling at a time when sentiment against him is growing in the Kremlin, with many saying that he needs to be brought to heel.
Kadyrov's term ends in April, but countrywide elections will not take place until September. This leaves more than six months for the Kremlin to make a decision. Putin's spokesman downplayed Kadyrov's announcement, saying the Russian president was still assessing Kadyrov's work and so the move to step down had not been accepted.
If Putin accepted Kadyrov's decision, the next six months could be used to manage a transition. There are a handful of Chechens — most of them related to Kadyrov — currently in government who could probably take the presidency without disrupting stability. Kadyrov would naturally need some role to keep him in the public eye and maintain the cohesion of the Chechen elite. Moreover, the Kremlin has to be sure the 40,000-strong Chechen Brigades will remain loyal to the Kremlin even without Kadyrov at the helm. Some Russian commentators have said that removing Kadyrov, while preserving stability, would show the country that Putin controls Chechnya instead of Kadyrov.
But Kadyrov's other role — as "Putin's foot soldier," in his own words — has been a useful distraction for Putin to use against the Russian elites who are pressuring him. As long as powerful circles in Moscow such as the Federal Security Services (FSB) are focused on challenging Kadyrov, they have fewer resources to use against Russia's own leader. This raises the question of whether the FSB has grown powerful enough to force Putin's hand when it comes to his Chechen ally.
Another possibility is that Putin may be sidelining Kadyrov to placate the Russian people. The Kremlin's continued allowance of Kadyrov's brash behavior has split Putin's popularity among Russia's population. Russia's leaders remember how the 2011-2012 mass protests against the government actually grew out of a nationalist movement that was already organized: Stop Feeding the Caucasus. The movement morphed into anti-Kremlin demonstrations in response to 2011 parliamentary election results and Putin's announcement that he was running for a third presidential term in 2012. Critical parliamentary elections are coming in the fall, as well as Putin's fourth re-election bid. Fearing protests related to the struggling economy, the Kremlin could be looking to score wins with voters wherever it can get them.
It's unclear who or what was behind Kadyrov's surprise announcement — whether it was Kadyrov himself, Putin, or Putin responding to FSB pressure. It's also unclear whether Kadyrov intends to or will be forced to follow through on the announcement. But what is clear is that the outcome will have important consequences not only for the future stability of Chechnya but also for Putin's own standing in the Kremlin.
