Turkey’s damage-control campaign in Idlib

Blog
Middle East Institute, 04.09.2018
Robert S. Ford, embajador (r) e investigador norteamericano (MEI)

The presidents of Russia, Iran, and Turkey will meet on Friday, Sept. 7, in Tehran to discuss agreed-upon paths forward in the Syrian war. The Turkish government hopes to forestall a massive Syrian government assault on the crowded opposition-held province of Idlib. Ankara is trying to convince Moscow to restrain such an assault while Turkey’s allies among the armed groups in Idlib work to reduce large al-Qaeda–linked groups in Idlib.

However, on Sept. 3 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that the Syrian government has the right to “liquidate” the terrorists in Idlib, adding to his Syrian counterpart Walid Muallem’s Aug. 30 pledge that the Syrian army “would go all the way in Idlib.” Also on Sept. 3, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif pledged support for the Syrian government’s effort to reassert control over Idlib. Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan thus faces substantial pressure from both Iran and Russia either for Turkish allies to attack extremists in Idlib immediately or to order the small Turkish observer force in Idlib to stand aside while Syrian forces backed by Iran and Russia launch attacks.

Sharp disagreements between the U.S. and Turkey about Syria strategy have left the country isolated. An American diplomatic team is due in Ankara this week, and Washington is urging restraint in Idlib to the Russians. However, Washington’s strongest warning was about the potential use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government. Unless Erdogan has a strong case in Tehran on Friday about progress against the more extreme armed opposition elements in Idlib, the Syrian government backed by Russia and Iran is likely to begin an operation in Idlib by early next week.

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