Análisis Geopolitical Diary, 17.06.2016
Michel Temer, who became Brazil's acting president when impeached leader Dilma Rousseff was suspended from office, faces an accusation of impropriety that could damage his political ambitions.(EVARISTO SA/AFP/Getty Images)
Over the past several decades of Brazilian politics, the Portuguese phrase rouba mas faz (roughly translating to "steals, but gets things done") had become a maxim for describing certain leaders. The phrase, historically associated with Ademar de Barros, who more than 50 years ago served as mayor of the city of Sao Paulo and governor of Sao Paulo state, refers to the idea in Brazil that corrupt politicians could be tolerated as long as they gave back to their electorates in the form of public works. But in the past couple of years, tolerance by Brazil's citizens and its justice system for official corruption has drastically diminished. Over the past six months, suspended President Dilma Rousseff, her political mentor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and even outsider presidential candidate Marina Silva have all been accused — either in formal criminal complaints or by whistleblowers — of corrupt acts or legal improprieties.
The most recent accusation of wrongdoing emerged Wednesday in a leaked plea bargain by the former CEO of a subsidiary of Brazilian energy giant Petroleo Brasileiro SA, which is at the center of a massive corruption investigation in the country. It alleges that Rousseff's interim successor, Michel Temer, accepted an illegal donation in 2012 on behalf of a party member's mayoral campaign that was funneled through Petrobras contracting firm Queiroz Galvao. This allegation, although not incorporated into a criminal complaint, could significantly influence Brazilian domestic politics over the next few months.
At this point, the main risk to Temer comes if the allegation quickly turns into a criminal case in Brazil's federal court system. If a case against Temer develops soon, it could cost him political allies, which in turn could affect the impeachment process against Rousseff. Defense testimony has begun in Senate impeachment hearings against her, which could be concluded by early August, just before the Olympic Games begin in Rio de Janeiro. Legal proceedings against Temer could also disrupt his political agenda, which includes goals to cut public spending and to loosen control by Petrobras over operating oil blocks.
To accomplish that agenda, Temer will try to hold together the coalition that holds majorities in both the House and Senate. That alliance, composed primarily of members of his Democratic Movement Party, the Social Democracy Party and lawmakers from several smaller parties, was forged during the effort to impeach Rousseff. If Temer is charged soon, some lawmakers may leave the coalition over concerns of the damage a criminal case against Temer could do to their parties' prospects in municipal elections in October and general elections scheduled for 2018. A fast-moving criminal case against Temer could also build some support for early elections. The scope of Brazil's corruption crisis could make early elections attractive as an option to help the country move past the scandal gripping its government.
The anti-Rousseff coalition's control of both houses, however, coupled with the potential for any legal action against Temer to be a relatively slow, lengthy process, make it plausible that a criminal case against him would not significantly affect his immediate political future. In that case, he would ascend to the presidency if the Senate removes Rousseff from office, most likely allowing him to rule at least until the general election.
The accusation against Temer throws an extra element of uncertainty into the Brazilian political crisis. At the very least, Temer will have to fend off a corruption allegation — one that could evolve into a real risk to his presidency. When he came to power a little more than a month ago, Temer was regarded as someone who could guide Brazil past the fallout from the Petrobras scandal. But instead, the investigation has ensnared him.
The Petrobras corruption probe has shown a remarkable level of resilience: From Temer and da Silva to lower house president Eduardo Cunha and Senate leader Renan Calheiros, every potential leader is being swallowed up in corruption allegations, and Brazil is quite literally running out of viable replacements for Rousseff. A couple of decades ago, Brazilians might have forgiven their politicians for misdeeds, but the rouba mas faz days of unfettered tolerance for corruption appear to be a thing of the past.
