Comentario Freeman Spogli Institute, 01.08.2025 Steven K. Pifer, exembajador y académico norteamericano
President Donald Trump has given Vladimir Putin until August 8 to act to end Russia’s war against Ukraine or face punitive measures. This hopefully means that Trump finally grasps that Putin has gamed him for the past six months and now will respond accordingly.
However, there are reasons for skepticism. Trump set earlier deadlines for the Kremlin and took no action when they passed. Also, his threatened punitive steps may not worry Putin much.
Trump told reporters on July 29 that the United States would “put on tariffs” if Russia made no progress toward halting the war “10 days from today.” That followed a 50-day deadline Trump set earlier in July and a deadline of “10 to 12 days” he put forward on July 28.
The deadline has had no apparent effect on Russian policy. Putin spokesman Dmitriy Peskov said, “We have taken note of President Trump’s statement yesterday. The special military operation continues.” “Special military operation” is Kremlin-speak for the largest and bloodiest war that Europe has seen since 1945.
Moscow has solid grounds on which to discount Trump’s latest deadline. In April and May, the American president repeatedly indicated that he would give Russia “two weeks” (or less) to progress toward an end to the fighting or else. In each case, the deadline passed with no change in Russian policy … and Trump did nothing.
It thus should surprise no one that Putin all but ignores the latest deadline.
Even if Trump intends to act on August 8, his threat of 100-percent tariffs on Russia and countries that trade with Russia probably does not keep the Russian leader up at night. In 2024, U.S. imports from Russia came to a paltry $3 billion.
As for sanctions on third countries, one can excuse the Kremlin for having doubts. Russia’s largest trading partner is China, which is also the largest importer of Russian oil. Would Trump hit China, when he recently has seemed to warm towards Beijing? U.S. and Chinese negotiators reportedly have discussed a 90-day extension in the current pause on tariffs. Moreover, China has cards to play were the United States to institute new tariffs. It could limit the export of rare earth minerals and magnets, as it did last spring.
Moscow can also take encouragement from the state of play regarding Senator Lindsey Graham’s bill that would impose up to 500-percent tariffs on Russia’s trading partners. Graham claims to have 85 co-sponsors, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he would not bring it to a vote without a green light from Trump. Thune has not brought the bill to the floor for a vote.
Two things have to happen if Trump wants to press Putin to change course and seek a just and durable peace with Ukraine. He has to mean it when he sets a deadline, which requires action on or immediately after August 8. And he has to take measures that cause real pain in the Kremlin.
Trump has significant potential leverage, should he choose to use it. First, U.S. hi tech goods, such as computer chips, continue to seep through sanctions and wind up in Russian weapons that strike Ukraine. Trump should have the U.S. government work with Western partners to shut down those loopholes.
Second, Washington should follow the European Union’s lead and lower the price cap on Russia oil from $60 to about $48 per barrel and blacklist additional Russian “shadow fleet” tankers. Those steps could reduce the revenues that Moscow collects from its oil exports.
Third, Trump has agreed to European purchases of U.S. arms for Ukraine. He should go one step further and indicate his readiness to ask Congress for funds to provide additional U.S. military assistance to Ukraine.
Fourth, Trump should press his European Union and G7 partners to join with the United States in seizing the frozen Russian Central Bank assets—some $300 billion—and transferring them to a fund to both arm Ukraine and help it rebuild.
These measures would signal the Kremlin that Trump no longer will be played for a patsy. They would stress a Russian economy that is already headed for stagnation. They also would confront Putin with the reality that, if he does not seek peace, Ukraine will have the resources to continue to fight, and Russian casualties will climb above the one million suffered to date.
These steps would signify a serious approach posing painful consequences for Moscow. They could help bring about the peace that Trump says he desires.
