Blog A Fragile Peace in East Asia, 27.02.2026 Joseph Di Trani, embajador ®, exmilitar y exoficial CIA
A ruler’s legitimacy is granted by divine authority based on their virtue and ability to govern justly, maintain harmony and care for the people, a yardstick for governing, dating back to the Zhou dynasty in China. Clearly, Iran’s leadership has lost its legitimacy.
On January 9, Supreme leader Ali Khamenei publicly exhorted his followers with “victory through terror” and “fight until no sedition.” Indeed, this is what happened, with the Human Rights Activists News Agency reporting the possible death of 22,000 protesters during the January 8-9 government crackdown. Testimony from morgues, graveyards, and hospitals has the number of protesters killed exceeding 30,000. “Bullet fees” were demanded of families visiting hospitals to claim the bodies of loved ones.
This should not have been a surprise to those following events in Iran. The death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, for not wearing a head scarf properly, sparked nationwide protests, which were met with lethal force and mass arrests. Iran’s security services, to include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), wereimplicated in the widespread abuses. Indeed, minorities and women face systemic discrimination under Iran’s legal and social order. The United Nations and NGOs routinely criticize Iran for its inhumane treatment of its own people.
IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly admonished Iran for lack of transparency and breaches of monitoring obligations, often accusing Iran of non-compliance with established safeguards. In 2025, Iran was enriching uranium at 60% purity, while denying IAEA monitors access to non-declared suspect enrichment sites. When the IAEA went public with this information, the IAEA was expelled from Iran.
When Iran reportedly — according to U.S. intelligence assessments and the IAEA – halted its formal, organized nuclear weapons program in 2003, Iran continued to enrich uranium and perfect technical expertise, an apparent hedging strategy for potential future development, rather than a permanent cessation of all related nuclear weapons activities. Most commercialreactors operate with fuel enriched to between 3% and 5%. Iranhas enriched uranium to 20%, and most recently to 60%, a small gap from the 90% enrichment necessary for weapons-grade Highly Enriched Uranium.
Satellite imagery in early 2026 confirmed that Iran is actively rebuilding and fortifying nuclear and missile sites bombed by U.S. strikes in June 2025. Although the U.S. bombingsignificantly damaged Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, Iran is constructing new, deeply buried facilities and repairing infrastructure to strengthen its nuclearprogram.
Western assessments warn that Iran’s enrichment capabilities and stockpiles of 20% and 60% enriched uranium put Iran closer to “breakout capacity – the ability to build a nuclear weapon quickly.
IRAN’S MISSILE PROGRAMS
Iran has the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. Its inventory of short, medium and longer-range missiles is growing, exponentially. Although Iran says these missiles are defensive and meant for regional deterrence, others see them as offensive and destabilizing.
Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles – Shahab-1 and Shahad-2 –were based on Soviet and North Korean Scud technology. They have evolved into sophisticated solid-fuel missiles, like the Fateh-110, with enhanced precision.
Iran’s medium-range ballistic missiles, with ranges from 1,200 km to 2,000 km (Shahab-3 and Ghadr-1), can reportedly reach targets in much of the Middle East and parts of southern Europe and North Africa. Iran is upgrading the capabilities of these missiles: solid fuel propulsion, enhanced guidance and counter-defenses with hypersonic capabilities.
Although Iran has publicly stated a policy of capping ballistic missile range at 2,000km, there is concern that their work on advanced propulsion and satellite technology could conceal their work on missiles exceeding 2,000 km, thus eventually providing Iran with intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of targeting the whole of Europe and the U.S.
STATE SPONSOR OF TERRORISM
Since 1984, the U.S. has designated Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism. Iran utilizes the IRGC-Qods Force to support various militant and proxy groups in the Middle East. Iran provides funding, weapons, and training to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, Shia militias in Iraq and Syria and Hamas in Gaza.
These proxies – the Axis of Resistance – are supported by Iran to counter mainly Israel and Saudi Arabia, but their strategies have contributed to regional instability and civilian harm.
Since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, killing over 1,200 Israeli citizens and taking 250 hostages, Israel has militarily decimated these proxies, although Iran continuesto support its weakened regional proxies.
CHANGE FROM WITHIN
Iran’s theocracy has failed the people. It has consistently treated its people inhumanely, while fomenting instability throughout the Middle East. Iran, a country with a civilization extending over 6,000 years, has devolved into a pariah state. Indeed, the people of Iran deserve new leadership. Hopefully, there arepatriots who have the support of the people and the courage to be the catalyst for change in Iran; to replace a corrupt theocracy with one that cares about the people and ceases to foment instability in the region. Such a needed change should have the unconditional support of the international community.
