Análisis Geopolitical Weekly, 18.08.2015 Rodger BakerLast week was an eventful one for China. First, the People's Bank of China shocked the financial world when it cut the yuan's reference rate against the U.S. dollar by nearly 2 percent, leading to a greater than 2 percent drop in the value of the yuan in offshore trading. The decline triggered a...
Forecasting Japan (IV): 25 Years Later
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 01.10.2015Summary Since the end of the Cold War, the Pacific Rim has seen China rise and Japan stagnate. However, Japan is approaching an epochal shift that will enable it to challenge the current orderIn the coming years, Japan will transition out of its slow-burning state of crisis as it seeks to make a radical break...
Forecasting Japan (III): The Failure of Reform
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 30.09.2015Summary Since the end of the Cold War, the Pacific Rim has seen China rise and Japan stagnate. However, Japan is approaching an epochal shift that will enable it to challenge the current orderAs the strategic situation in the Pacific changes, Japan will be forced to adapt. Tokyo will need to pull the...
Forecasting Japan (I): A Slow-Burning Crisis
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 28.09,2015Summary Since the end of the Cold War, the Pacific Rim has seen China rise and Japan stagnate. However, Japan is approaching an epochal shift that will enable it to challenge the current order. This analysis is the first in a four-part a series that forecasts the nature of that shift and the...
Forecasting Japan (II): China Rises
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 29.09.2015Summary Since the end of the Cold War, the Pacific Rim has seen China rise and Japan stagnate. However, Japan is approaching an epochal shift that will enable it to challenge the current order. This analysis is the second in a four-part a series that forecasts the nature of that shift and the...
India en el siglo de Asia
Artículo Economía Exterior, Nº 73 (Verano 2015) Fernando DelageEl gobierno de Modi muestra una gran determinación con respecto a sus principales objetivos exteriores: maximizar los intercambios comerciales, financieros y tecnológicos con los Estados de su periferia; consolidar la nueva asociación con EE UU y reequilibrar la relación con ChinaLa realización del siglo de Asia –señaló el primer...
The Cautionary Tale of China’s Lin Biao
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 13.09.2015 Thomas Vien"The revolution is like Saturn, she devours her own children," says doomed French revolutionary Georges Danton in Georg Buchner's 1835 play Danton's Death. The Chinese revolution — and its aftershocks throughout the period of Mao Zedong's rule — was no exception. On Sept. 13, 1971, a Chinese Trident 1E airliner crashed in...
Why the U.S. Feels It Must Contain Russia
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence Eugene Chausovsky, ruso-norteamericano licenciado en RRII (U. de Texas)At the outset of the Cold War, in 1946, U.S. diplomat George F. Kennan sent what became popularly known as the "long telegram" from the embassy in Moscow outlining a policy of containment in dealing with the Soviet Union. The policy was made public in...
Diplomacy and the South China Sea
Opinión The Diplomat, 17.08.2015 Scott Devary, licenciado en RRII y Diplomacia (Seton Hall University) y MBA en ciencia política (U. de Washington)Some diplomatic innovation may be the best chance to manage disputes and forestall conflictRecent months have brought shocking photos showing new manmade islands and a gargantuan industrial effort in the South China Sea being undertaken...
The Chinese Communist Party
Artículo CFR Backgrounders, 17.11.2014 Beina Xu y Eleanor Albert, escritora editoraIntroduction The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is the founding and ruling political party of modern China, boasting more than eighty-six million members. In 2012, the CCP underwent a pivotal once-in-a-decade power transition that saw its fifth generation of leaders set the future agenda for the second-largest economy in...