Carta OpinionGlobal, 15.07.2024 Riad Fouad Saade, empresario libanés y cónsul honorario de Chile en Beirut
Dear friends from Chile,
It has been sometime that I did not update you about the situation in Lebanon.
The politically immature and corrupt establishment governing Lebanon and the tight control of the country by Hezbollah that is openly executing Iran’s middle East agenda, prevented the vote for a new President of the Republic which is a condition to the revitalizing of the state administration and the relaunching of the economy.
Meanwhile the Lebanese are surviving in spite of the government that has increased tremendously the taxes. The summer season is neverthrless successful due to the large number of Lebanese emigrates who are visiting their home land. As a matter of fact, Lebanon is holding thanks to the support of its emigrates.
As stated in my May “charla” and repeated in my previous “informe”, the political immediate future of Lebanon is linked to the IRAN/USA policies in the area.
At present we should consider two crucial events:
1- The recent election of President Massoud Pezeshkian, presented as a reformist. He is nevertheless in line with the Supreme Leader’s policy and is expected to execute a shift towards a negotiation approach, The Supreme Leader noticed that the confrontation approach of previous President Raissi failed serving Iran’s interest. Mohammad Javad Zarif previous foreign minister, had a major role in the Pezeshkian election and is expected to handle again Iran’s foreign policy.
It Should also be noted that Iran declared lately that it is seeking negotiations with all its neighbors, paving the way to a peaceful Middle East.
2- The presidential elections in the USA: Donald Trump seems to have the most chances to win. He is expected to modify his previous Middle East policy, he probably understands better the position of the Gulf oil monarchies and will deal with Iran in a different way than Joe Biden.
As to Lebanon, we should not forget that Trump is fond of his Lebanese son in law, billionaire Michael Boulos. He speaks highly about him and about his father. This means that his information about Lebanon will not be exclusively through the biest official channels.
In this context, Lebanon (same as other Mid-Eastern countries) will have to wait until the next USA President takes office to consider political developments. Meanwhile we live in a stagnating expectation mode.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu will keep maneuvering for his political survival. The disastrous outcome of the October 7 raid by Hamas, is dramatic for the Palestinian population in Gaza, in the West occupied Bank and inside Israel. It has dangerously hit the Israeli economy, and torn its society of which many Israelis are questioning their future presence in the Middle East. The Israeli Peace Lobby has simply vanished. The Israeli Defense Forces are in total disagreement with Netanyahu’s policy and the troops are exhausted after 283 days of unsuccessful battles on all fronts.
Netanyahu will continue maneuvering till the USA presidential elections. It is obvious that Trump will no longer abide by Netanyahu’s desires (especially dragging the USA in a war against Iran). The internal Israeli policy will then have to shift. Will Netanyahu manage to remain as PM after US elections?
For Lebanon, summer 2024 shall be a “wait and expect attitude untill US elections”. Battles on the Southern border will bring more destruction and death. Generalized war is not foreseen but extension of hostilities to the Syrian occupied Golan is expected. Unhealthy political atmosphere will prevail. And Lebanese will keep striving for life, each in his own way..
I sincerely wish that a group of Chileans visits Lebanon again this summer. I understand your resentments, but should you decide to come, you can count on me to spend beautiful moments
Affectionately
