Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 29.09.2015Summary Since the end of the Cold War, the Pacific Rim has seen China rise and Japan stagnate. However, Japan is approaching an epochal shift that will enable it to challenge the current order. This analysis is the second in a four-part a series that forecasts the nature of that shift and the...
India en el siglo de Asia
Artículo Economía Exterior, Nº 73 (Verano 2015) Fernando DelageEl gobierno de Modi muestra una gran determinación con respecto a sus principales objetivos exteriores: maximizar los intercambios comerciales, financieros y tecnológicos con los Estados de su periferia; consolidar la nueva asociación con EE UU y reequilibrar la relación con ChinaLa realización del siglo de Asia –señaló el primer...
The Cautionary Tale of China’s Lin Biao
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 13.09.2015 Thomas Vien"The revolution is like Saturn, she devours her own children," says doomed French revolutionary Georges Danton in Georg Buchner's 1835 play Danton's Death. The Chinese revolution — and its aftershocks throughout the period of Mao Zedong's rule — was no exception. On Sept. 13, 1971, a Chinese Trident 1E airliner crashed in...
Why the U.S. Feels It Must Contain Russia
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence Eugene Chausovsky, ruso-norteamericano licenciado en RRII (U. de Texas)At the outset of the Cold War, in 1946, U.S. diplomat George F. Kennan sent what became popularly known as the "long telegram" from the embassy in Moscow outlining a policy of containment in dealing with the Soviet Union. The policy was made public in...
Diplomacy and the South China Sea
Opinión The Diplomat, 17.08.2015 Scott Devary, licenciado en RRII y Diplomacia (Seton Hall University) y MBA en ciencia política (U. de Washington)Some diplomatic innovation may be the best chance to manage disputes and forestall conflictRecent months have brought shocking photos showing new manmade islands and a gargantuan industrial effort in the South China Sea being undertaken...
The Chinese Communist Party
Artículo CFR Backgrounders, 17.11.2014 Beina Xu y Eleanor Albert, escritora editoraIntroduction The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is the founding and ruling political party of modern China, boasting more than eighty-six million members. In 2012, the CCP underwent a pivotal once-in-a-decade power transition that saw its fifth generation of leaders set the future agenda for the second-largest economy in...
Japan and Chinese Decision-Making
Artículo The Diplomat, 12.08.2015 Charles Douglas Appleton, asistente de investigación de Rebuilt Japan Initiative FoundationUnderstanding China’s decision-making process could help Japan create a better strategy.
“Our best chance of avoiding antagonism with China is to open up the black box of Chinese domestic politics, look inside, and figure out what makes China act as it...
China’s New Islands Are Clearly Military, U.S. Pacific Chief Says
Opinión Defense One, 24.07.2015 Kevin Baron, director ejecutivoAdm. Harry Harris, head of U.S. Pacific Command, says the vastly expanded reefs now look exactly like combat bases for fighters, bombers, ships, and surveillance. The top U.S. military officer in the Pacific sternly warned China on Friday to immediately cease its “aggressive coercive island building” in the South China...
A Partnership with China to Avoid World War
Artículo The New York Review of Books, Vol.62 (12) 2015 George SorosInternational cooperation is in decline both in the political and financial spheres. The UN has failed to address any of the major conflicts since the end of the cold war; the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference left a sour aftertaste; the World Trade Organization hasn’t concluded...
Towards a Rational U.S. Strategy (Part II)
Artículo Consortiumnews, 01.07.2015 William R. Polk, consultor en política exterior y profesor de HarvardThe ultimate madness of today’s U.S. foreign policy is Official Washington’s eager embrace of a new Cold War against Russia with the potential for nuclear annihilation. A rational strategy would seek alternatives to this return to big-power confrontation. In Part One, I dealt at length with America’s relationship with...