Análisis OpenDemocracy, 16.07.2015 Bassma Kodmani, director ejecutivo de Arab Reform InitiativeSyria is central to the security and future of the Middle East, but conditions for a resolution of the Syrian conflict through a political solution do not exist. An excerpt from a NOREF expert analysis. Creating the conditions for a political solution Syria is known to Arabs as the heart...
Number of Syrian Refugees Climbs to More than 4 Million
Reportaje The New York Times, 09.07.2015 Nick Cumming-BruceThe number of Syrians who have fled into neighboring countries to escape the civil war has reached more than four million, the United Nations said Thursday, and with the fighting dragging into its fifth year the number is still rising. More than 24,000 people crossed into Turkey to escape fighting in northern Syria in...
The Taliban
Resumen ejecutivo CFR "InfoGuide" Presentation, 22.01.2015
- The Taliban has outlasted the world’s most potent military forces and its two main factions now challenge the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
- As U.S. troops draw down, the next phase of conflict will have consequences that extend far beyond the region.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
Análisis CFR Backgrounders, 16.06.2015Introduction The militant Islamist group al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was formed in January 2009 through a union of the Saudi and Yemeni branches of al-Qaeda. Jihadist antecedents in the region date to the early 1990s, when thousands of mujahadeen returned to Yemen after fighting the Soviet occupation in Afghanistan. Analysts rate the Yemen-based...
Por qué funciona el califato
Opinión El País, 27.06.2015 Loretta Napoleoni, economista italianaEl Estado Islámico posee unas características que ningún otro grupo armado yihadista ha tenido jamás: pragmatismo y modernidad. En 12 meses, tras extender sus fronteras y consolidar su territorio, es el referente indiscutible de esa ideología Era de esperar que, con motivo del primer aniversario de la creación del Califato, el...
El ‘califato del terror’ cumple un año
Reportaje El Confidencial, 28.06.2015 Daniel Iriarte, corresponsal en EstambulEl Estado Islámico cumple un año mañana, tiempo suficiente para entender cuáles son sus objetivos, cuáles sus puntos débiles y para preparar una estrategia de choque Fanáticos. Genios de la propaganda. Terroristas peligrosos. Administradores eficientes. Asesinos crueles. Insurgentes de probada capacidad militar. El Estado Islámico es un fenómeno con tantas dimensiones que...
Who Lost Iraq?
Entrevista a funcionarios y académicos estadounidenses Politico Magazine, julio/agosto 2015 Michael CrowleyDid George W. Bush create the Islamic State? Did Barack Obama? We asked the insiders to tell us who’s to blame. For a brief, happy—and misguided—moment, most Americans stopped thinking about Iraq. After withdrawing the last U.S. troops in 2011, President Barack Obama declared the country “sovereign,...
Carta de Europa: Desde la Ucrania Post-Maidán
Artículo Política Exterior, N*165 (mayo-junio 2015) Francisco de Borja Las HerasLa guerra de las reformas es a menudo el conflicto olvidado en Ucrania. El reto es transformarse sin descomponerse en pleno conflicto bélico con Rusia y los grupos armados en el Este. Para Ucrania y su gobierno hoy “es casi más fácil tratar la guerra que las reformas”,...
Imperial Ambitions: Russia’s Military Buildup
Ensayo World Affairs, junio 2015 Stephen Blank, miembro de American Foreign Policy CouncilIn September 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted that he could, at will, occupy any Eastern European capital in two days. This apparently spontaneous utterance reveals, probably more than Russia’s new official defense doctrine, Moscow’s true assessment of NATO’s capabilities, cohesion, and will to resist....
A Net Assessment on the Middle East
Análisis Geopolitical Weekly, 09.06.2015 George Friedman, fundador y presidente Stratfor Global IntelligenceThe term "Middle East" has become enormously elastic. The name originated with the British Foreign Office in the 19th century. The British divided the region into the Near East, the area closest to the United Kingdom and most of North Africa; the Far East, which was...