Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 01.10.2015Summary Since the end of the Cold War, the Pacific Rim has seen China rise and Japan stagnate. However, Japan is approaching an epochal shift that will enable it to challenge the current orderIn the coming years, Japan will transition out of its slow-burning state of crisis as it seeks to make a radical break...
Forecasting Japan (III): The Failure of Reform
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 30.09.2015Summary Since the end of the Cold War, the Pacific Rim has seen China rise and Japan stagnate. However, Japan is approaching an epochal shift that will enable it to challenge the current orderAs the strategic situation in the Pacific changes, Japan will be forced to adapt. Tokyo will need to pull the...
Forecasting Japan (II): China Rises
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 29.09.2015Summary Since the end of the Cold War, the Pacific Rim has seen China rise and Japan stagnate. However, Japan is approaching an epochal shift that will enable it to challenge the current order. This analysis is the second in a four-part a series that forecasts the nature of that shift and the...
India en el siglo de Asia
Artículo Economía Exterior, Nº 73 (Verano 2015) Fernando DelageEl gobierno de Modi muestra una gran determinación con respecto a sus principales objetivos exteriores: maximizar los intercambios comerciales, financieros y tecnológicos con los Estados de su periferia; consolidar la nueva asociación con EE UU y reequilibrar la relación con ChinaLa realización del siglo de Asia –señaló el primer...
The Cautionary Tale of China’s Lin Biao
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 13.09.2015 Thomas Vien"The revolution is like Saturn, she devours her own children," says doomed French revolutionary Georges Danton in Georg Buchner's 1835 play Danton's Death. The Chinese revolution — and its aftershocks throughout the period of Mao Zedong's rule — was no exception. On Sept. 13, 1971, a Chinese Trident 1E airliner crashed in...
1945: Asia’s Powers Converge at Okinawa
Análisis Stratfor Global Intelligence, 06.09.2015On Sept. 7, 1945, Japanese forces in the Ryukyu Islands officially surrendered to the Americans on the island of Okinawa. U.S. forces spent more than 80 days between April and June 1945 taking the island. The battle ended with 300,000 military and civilian casualties, the death of U.S. Lt. Gen. Simon Bolivar...
Muslims Memories of West’s Imperialism
Informe especial Consortiumnews, 04.09.2015 William R. Polk, historiador, escritor y ex profesor sobre el Medio Oriente en HarvardAmerican politicians know little about history, so they lash out at people from formerly colonized Third World nations without understanding the scars that the West’s repression and brutality have left on these societies, especially in the Muslim worldOne result of...
Diplomacy and the South China Sea
Opinión The Diplomat, 17.08.2015 Scott Devary, licenciado en RRII y Diplomacia (Seton Hall University) y MBA en ciencia política (U. de Washington)Some diplomatic innovation may be the best chance to manage disputes and forestall conflictRecent months have brought shocking photos showing new manmade islands and a gargantuan industrial effort in the South China Sea being undertaken...
Japan and Chinese Decision-Making
Artículo The Diplomat, 12.08.2015 Charles Douglas Appleton, asistente de investigación de Rebuilt Japan Initiative FoundationUnderstanding China’s decision-making process could help Japan create a better strategy.
“Our best chance of avoiding antagonism with China is to open up the black box of Chinese domestic politics, look inside, and figure out what makes China act as it...
Quantum Geopolitics
Análisis Stratfor, 28.07.2015 Reva Bhalla, experta en relaciones internacionalesForecasting the shape the world will take in several years or decades is an audacious undertaking. There are no images to observe or precise data points to anchor us. We can only create a picture, and a fuzzy one at best. This is, after all, our basic human empirical...